Development and Uncertainty

I am sitting on a hill in Al-Salt, a small city neighboring Amman, overlooking Jerusalem, Nablus, and Bethlehem. If I drive two hours North of here, I would be in Dara’a, a Syrian city where most of the violence has been taking place since the beginning of the Syrian conflict. If I make a similar trip East, I would find myself in Iraq. This makes me wonder, what is the shape of development in cities surrounded by such instability and unpredictability? More importantly, how do we create and prepare institutions that can manage such challenges?

Pointing at Jerusalem

Jordan’s fast population growth, water scarcity, and economic difficulties are further exacerbated by the conflicts that surround it. Jordan sees a constant influx of refugees from its neighboring countries like Iraq and Palestine, and in the past year Jordan received refugees from Syria and Libya. That along with internal political, economic, and social struggles there is a lot of pressure on NGO’s, private, and public institutions to overcome existing and potential challenges against development.

While the prospects seem gloomy, I think that the Jordanian population will manage to recover from such political and humanitarian crises like it did during the several regional wars the country was affected by, namely the Gulf War, the War on Iraq in 2003, as well as the different conflicts between Arab and Israeli armies since 1948. I find that here, the population’s resilience against political and economic shocks, and their willing humanitarian response is admirable. More importantly, I think that Jordan like most of the Middle East has long faced uncertain challenges, which makes such unpredictability a little familiar. I will be hoping for the best. 

Introducing student loans in Jordan

In a meeting with the Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research in Jordan, Dr. Wajih Oweis, we discussed a mechanism in which we can establish a publicly funded student financial assistance program. Our discussion was driven by the real need for such a program in Jordan. We estimated that in the academic year 2012-2013 about 40,000 students will require need-based financial aid in the form of student loans.

On the other hand, it is estimated that 80% of university graduates remain unemployed in their first year after graduation, in the absence of a national credit law, and with rising financial austerity how can we address this need? More importantly, our proposed solution must ensure that these financial assistance programs do not exclude the poor.

Over the past two weeks, I met with different financial and economic experts to discuss this and to hopefully prepare a suitable solution in the near future. 

(Photo courtesy of Ammonnews.net) 

Three environmentalists walk into a bar...

Sometime in the early 1970s, three environmentalists were deep in debate about how to measure the impact humans have on the planet. One of the three, Barry Commoner, argued that the impact was purely a result of technological innovation following WWII. The other two, Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren, argued that the most important aspects of our impact were population growth and our increasing affluence. As all good environmentalists would they created an equation with which to codify this debate. The result was the IPAT equation. For the uninitiated, IPAT is an accounting equation (I = P x A x T) which states that human impact (I) is a product of our population (P) multiplied by our affluence (A) multiplied by our technology (T). Affluence represents our consumption and technology represents how resource intensive our affluence is to produce. I admit that I'm over-simplifying here. For a much more detailed analysis of the equation, its many adaptations, and its limitations, simply google "IPAT equation."

Just a few months ago this was nothing more than a theoretical concept to me. At the time, I argued that the most important factor fueling our impact was population. If you have fewer people, then OF COURSE! you will have a lower impact. My time in India has only cemented that idea. Despite our technological innovations and growing affluence, I believe more than ever that our main problem is population. For example, the city where I'm living this summer (Bangalore) has grown 200% in the past decade compared to the 3% growth rate of New York over the same time period. As I wrote in my last blog post, this growth has led to a number of problems: traffic, air and water pollution, low power quality, decaying infrastructure, homelessness, etc., etc. all of which has had a negative impact on the environment. Ehrlich and Holdren were right! It's population!

Or is it? What do you think? How has your WDI experience informed your perspective on this issue? If it is population, how do we deal with it? If it's not population, then what is it? And how do we deal with it?

Untapped Talent

My plane landed in Amman, Jordan on May 7^th, 2012. The beautiful sunny (and dry) afternoon in Amman was a welcome change from Ann Arbor’s unpredictable weather. On my drive back from the airport, amidst the sounds of heavy traffic, pedestrian activity, and my sisters’ excited chatter around me, the call to prayer rose in the background announcing the sunset. There is something about Amman, the energy, the chaos, and hints of frustration that make it so unique.

I worked in Jordan for two years prior to joining the University of Michigan. In October 2010, I met Amir in Amman. Amir worked two jobs, commuted from Jerash two hours north of Amman, and was supporting five children, two of whom were university students. We worked in the same building and I often saw him in the elevator, a few months later he confessed to me the difficulty he was facing supporting his family financially and the real burden college tuition has become on his family.

As I returned to my office, sincerely bothered by his troubles, I just wanted to find ways to help. I realized he was not the only one, in fact, I soon learned that only about 16% of Jordanian families can afford higher education in Jordan. That being said, programs and organizations that provided student loans have not been able to reach anywhere near the capacity needed. Will Amir win the battle against his circumstances? Will he be able to finance the education of his five children? And what about the other 84% of Jordanian fathers? With access to higher education seemingly limited to a few, how many opportunities, in the shape of untapped talent, is Jordan’s economy missing out on?

The following year, I started my graduate degree at the University of Michigan, and I am lucky enough to be chosen as a William Davidson Institute fellow this summer, working with Vittana, a non-governmental organization that provides student loans in developing countries. Vittana partners with microfinance institutions in the countries they serve, and their loans are funded by lenders on their website.

This summer, I am addressing the questions I started to ask two years ago. I am hopeful and optimistic.